Sent: Thu, Nov 28, 2013 1:39 am
Subject: The Iran deal
The interim deal agreed between the P5+1 international
powers and Iran in Geneva is a diplomatic victory for Pres Obama and his
allies. But, it is a temporary solution for 6 months in the crisis
relating to the potential acquisition by Iran of nuclear weapons. Whether
you approve of this deal or not depends a lot on whether or not you think Iran
can be trusted to keep the terms and spirit of the deal.
Certainly it is better to avoid conflict if possible, but
Chamberlain declared Hitler an honorable man and made a deal with him, that he
broke when it suited his purpose. North Korea made an agreement with the
US that it would stop all nuclear activity, but a year later it revealed it had
a secret program and had continued developing nuclear capability. So the
question is, can the supposed "moderate" Pres Rouhani or his boss Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Khamanei be trusted any more than Hitler, or Kim Jung Il.
Especially since Khamanei declared last week and again today that nothing could
stop Iran from enriching uranium.
The deal gives Iran temporary relief of some sanctions
(valued at ca. b$700) in exchange for promises not to develop any more enriched
uranium above 3%, to reduce its huge stockpile of highly enriched 20% uranium
and to stop any further addition of centrifuges to its enrichment
facilities. Also there is provision for the cessation of work on the
plutonium reactor at Irak. The agreement also calls for daily verification
of these terms by an independent agency. However, as some have pointed
out, not only has Iran broken its agreements before, but there is no
way that improvements in other facilities and in areas away from the major
plants can be detected. It could build huge new capabilities without this
agreement applying to it. So it comes down to whether or not Iran's
government can be trusted to keep its word.
PM Netanyahu has rightly backed off his severe criticism
of this deal now that it has become fait accompli, and is now considering how to
influence the final agreement that is due to be negotiated after 6 months.
He is sending a delegation to Washington to consult with the Obama
Administration over the terms of the supposed final deal. Whether or not
this deal is a defeat for Netanyahu depends upon your interpretation. His
opposition to a "bad" deal certainly helped to improve the conditions of the
deal agreed by Iran. Now we must wait and see how the deal pans out and
then what the final deal will be. If it avoids a military strike and war
all to the good, but if the deal does not stop Iran developing nuclear weapons
it will have achieved nothing.
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